Thoughts on Durban

At the start of this month, I got an email from One Hundred Months just highlighting that there are five years left to start making some significant changes to what we are doing in terms of reducing carbon emissions…

I am not particularly certain of whether to think that the COP17 talks in Durban were good or bad, but I am certain that more was certainly achieved than in other recent talks. The real positive news is that there now seems to be a degree of consensus that something needs to be done, and a long term framework that is legally binding.  Without a doubt, this is a great step and is something that has been missing from the climate change agenda in recent years; consensus is crucial to any capacity for things such as Australia’s carbon tax or any emission trading schemes in shipping and aviation which I have previously written about. The EU did very well to achieve its aims for the conference – and not surprisingly the United States has failed to demonstrate any leadership in this despite Obama’s pre-election promises (and with the presidential elections twelve months out, it is unlikely to improve) – see for example here. It will be interested to watch China, as the biggest emitter, to see what they do in the next few years to curb emissions – at a national level, they seem to appear as if they may be more committed to addressing this that the US or even India.

From the Washington Post

However, the real downside here is about the timing of what is meant to come next. The existing binding agreement (although very limited in terms of what countries are signed up to it) expires next year, so there is going to be a real gap in terms of commitments to reductions over this very critical period of the next few years in which extensive action is needed. This is precisely the same period in which it is crucial to bring yearly emissions down, so it is almost a case of closing the barn door after the horse has bolted…